You gotta win the winnable games

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Sometimes it takes a while to learn the “identity” of a soccer team. Charlotte FC’s 2023 team, Christian Lattanzio’s last at the helm, couldn’t hold a late lead. The 2024 team, Dean Smith’s first as coach, was hard to beat. (Translation: relied on stifling defense.) Last year’s club “rode them waves,” as Smith said, cruising on an MLS-recording tying nine-game win streak after free-falling through the road schedule.

Here we are, in not-yet-May, and a 2026 trend is already emerging: Charlotte FC isn’t winning the winnables.

Wednesday night was the latest and most telling example, when Charlotte, which came in ranked third in the Eastern Conference, played in Orlando against a team ranked last in MLS, and lost 4-1. A team that had scored just six goals in its first eight games got a pair from Martin Ojeda and one each from players scoring their first MLS goals.

Yes, it was on the road, where Charlotte has shown an overarching trend for the past four years of struggling, but home hasn’t been a solution in these scenarios, either. Against “rotated” lineups, meaning a host of regulars are resting, Charlotte tied Inter Miami 0-0 and lost to Nashville 2-1.

And yes, unlike Orlando, those two teams are the class of MLS so far this season. But like the Orlando game, those two matchups fall under the category of games Charlotte FC is probably going to want back at the end of the season.

Apple TV’s lead analyst Taylor Twellman posed, and later repeated, a question on the air Wednesday night, suggesting the game’s outcome would dictate whether Charlotte is truly a top-four team in the Eastern Conference. His conclusion, which he shared in extra time, Charlotte reeling from a three-goal deficit?

“I think we got our answer tonight, because a top-four team wins this game,” Twellman said. “… You have to win the games that you’re expected to win with the roster that you have. And I’ve seen Charlotte three times this year go into games, where myself included, expect them to dominate the game and yet here we are.”

When asked afterward how to make sense of the loss, coming off the momentum of its first road win last Saturday in New York, Smith gave what many perceived as a mind-bending answer.

“Well, we actually played better than we did on Saturday at New York,” Smith said, and we pause here to let that land. “But if you give the goals away like we did today, then you're not going to win football games.”

Believe it or not, some of the metrics bear out what Smith is saying. Charlotte was outperformed by New York in expected goals and shots, among other statistical categories, according to Fotmob.com, and won Saturday at Citi Field. And on Wednesday, Charlotte outperformed Orlando in those same categories and lost, big.

But expected goals are a lot like expected wins: They don’t count in the end. The statistic is based on the chances of scoring in terms of proximity to the goal. Two of Orlando’s goals against Charlotte were from outisde the box, a lower percentage shot, but they counted just the same.

Star winger Wilfried Zaha mentioned something three weeks ago after Charlotte gave up a lead to the Philadelphia Union before ultimately rallying in the second half that still resonates.

“I feel like sometimes we can be naive as a team,” Zaha said. “You’ve got to have that killer instinct, and that comes with experience. … It goes into that mentality where we think we’ve already won, and it’s easy. But in order to be the best, you’ve got to be constantly on it.”

On Saturday, Charlotte goes from playing, at least on paper, the worst team in the Eastern Conference to the best when the Crown plays at No. 1 Nashville SC. Nashville knocked defending MLS Cup champion Inter Miami and Lionel Messi out of the Concacaf Champions Cup last month and ultimately advanced to the semifinals. Nashville hosts the first of two semifinal legs against the Tigres UANL of the Mexican League on Tuesday.

That’s likely to mean it’s a rotated squad again against Charlotte. Sam Surridge, Hany Mukhtar and Cristian Espinoza, Nashville’s vaunted front three, were all on the bench to start Nashville’s 2-1 win at Bank of America Stadium two weeks ago. So even if they sit, Charlotte has its work cut out.

And lurking for Charlotte on Tuesday? Another game you’d figure they should win. The team that fell to the Eastern Conference cellar after Orlando beat Charlotte on Wednesday night was Atlanta United. That’s who is coming to play Charlotte FC Tuesday night in the U.S. Open Cup.

Buckle up.

Defender Andrew Privett has played 69 league games for Charlotte FC now. It’s easy to forget he wasn’t a center back, but a midfielder, as a player at the University of Maryland. But when he served up a pass to L.A. Galaxy’s Joao Klauss for a point-blank goal on Feb. 28, one of three L.A. scored in a five-minute span, it was the first time Privett had ever felt the angst of making a gift pass that an opponent turned into an immediate goal.

“Part of it was just shock, too,” Privett said. “Pass it right to the striker, so it’s tough.”

Privett had a lot of time to dwell on it — Smith sat him in favor of Morrison Agyemang for the next five games — but decided to watch a replay of the mistake just once, then try to move on.

“You focus on what's important now,” Privett said. “Doing the right things in training and getting confidence back, those are the main two things I was trying to focus on.”

Privett said his teammates all offered their encouragement, to forget about it, and learn from it. Coach Dean Smith then gave him not only his first start back, but the captain’s armband, for Charlotte FC’s U.S. Open Cup Round of 32 game against the Charlotte Independence.

“He's a strong character,” Smith said. “I could tell, he probably wasn't himself in terms of how he was training for a few days [after the L.A. loss]. That happens, but he's certainly come through over the last three or four weeks, and he's trained really well. And I thought he played really well in the US Open Cup, and Saturday [in New York] as well.”

Tim Ream had to leave at halftime of the game in New York with a strained adductor, or groin, muscle. Privett played a mistake-free second half and started again on Wednesday in Orlando. He’s expected back in the lineup in Nashville while Ream recovers from what Smith said was a minor muscle strain.

After an MRI Sunday, Ream was expected to miss a week of action. Smith said Friday morning Ream should be ready to go at New England next Saturday. Ream is gearing up for a summer World Cup run with the U.S. Men’s national team.

Veteran addition Henry Kessler was another option to fill in at center back but had some knee tendinitis flare up. Smith said Friday he was back in practice and if all went well would travel to Nashville.

If Charlotte FC tested the waters with Rodolfo Aloko in his first MLS game April 11 against Nashville, it’s going full bore now. The 19-year-old Aloko, who came off the bench for seven minutes in a 2-1 loss to Nashville, has started and played more than 70 minutes in each of Charlotte’s past three games, including the U.S. Open Cup against the Independence.

He’s taken six shots, two of which were on target but saved. He’s still hunting his first goal in MLS play after scoring six goals in five games for Crown Legacy in MLS Next Pro.

“He's got the pace, the power, the bravery,” Smith said. “It's just the end product that we'll be working on with him.”

When/Where: Geodis Park, Nashville, 8:30 p.m.

How to watch: Apple TV. Find information about how to subscribe for the season here.

How to listen: WFNZ 92.7 in English, WOLS 106.1 in Spanish.

Notable

Carroll Walton is a longtime baseball writer with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution now in her fifth season covering Charlotte FC. She would love to hear from you. E-mail her with questions, suggestions, story ideas and comments!