The following article was published in the March 18, 2026, edition of The Charlotte Ledger.
Consumers continue to power the economy, but some warning signs ahead; shift away from pizza spending?
Economist David Tinsely of the Bank of America Institute told the Charlotte Economics Club last week that consumers are resilient, but there are worries about later in the year. (Photo: Tony Mecia/The Charlotte Ledger)
U.S. consumers are still spending and keeping the economy afloat.
But widening income gaps and sluggish earnings from middle-class consumers suggest that spending resilience might not last through the end of the year, a Charlotte bank economist said in a speech last week.
Economists lately have been noting that spending by upper-income Americans — especially on discretionary expenses like travel and dining out — has powered the U.S. economy, while lower-income households haven’t boosted spending by the same levels.
Economic data from January and February continues that trend, said Bank of America Institute senior economist David Tinsley, while also showing that middle-class income growth is trending downward. The middle class makes up about 40% of U.S. households and accounts for 35% of consumer spending.
“They pretty much punch their weight, but you lose those guys and the lower [income households], you’ve lost a lot of the economy,” he said.
Tinsley was citing proprietary data from Bank of America, which has 69 million customers and can provide real-time insights on income and spending. He spoke last week to an audience at the Charlotte Economics Club uptown.
Tinsley also weighed in on other economic topics:
Fuel prices: The recent spike in oil and gas prices since the bombings in Iran started seems unlikely to cause major economic damage, Tinsley said. “As long as the oil price doesn't go crazy and above $100 [a barrel] again, the impact on consumption from here should be relatively modest.”
Card spending: The growth rate in credit and debit card spending rose 3.2% in February compared with a year earlier, the highest increase in three years. There were notable jumps in spending on electronics, groceries and clothing.
Restaurants: The bank’s data shows changes are afoot in restaurant spending, with younger generations cutting back while also shifting toward local, non-chain restaurants. And: “We’ve seen a move away from pizza in our data.” Millennials are also drinking less alcohol and working out more, a trend Tinsley termed moving from “barstools to barbells.”
Overall, he said, consumer spending seems to be in good shape, especially since tax refunds should provide a temporary spending boost.
“The overall consumer outlook is, right now, very good, healthy growth. … The growth is a little bit imbalanced between lower-income households and the rest,” he said. “… I worry more about the end of this year … [and] whether the fading of middle-income spending is something that will bite us, and the politicians as well.”
The Charlotte Economics Club holds monthly luncheons and other events on economic policy, business trends, regional growth issues and global economic themes. The Ledger is the club’s media partner. —Tony Mecia