A version of the following article appeared in the May 18, 2026, edition of The Charlotte Ledger, an e-newsletter with local business-y news and insights for Charlotte, N.C.
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How pricing for raw goods has become politicized
William Thomson, managing partner at Massif Capital, speaks at the Charlotte Economics Club meeting on May 12 at the Charlotte City Center Club. (Photo by Ashley Fahey/The Charlotte Ledger)
by Ashley Fahey
Some basic economic principles seem, at least on their face, apolitical. But the world is changing so rapidly that political maneuvers are quickly upending long-accepted economic systems and assumptions, because access and pricing of raw goods and materials are increasingly linked to policy decisions and where political power is concentrating.
William Thomson, managing partner at Massif Capital, was the featured speaker at this month’s Charlotte Economics Club. Thomson presented key findings of a paper he expects to be published this week on how geopolitical shifts are affecting commodity pricing.
A real-time example of how this affects the average consumer is, of course, the Iran War. Gas prices are up 50% since the start of the war. Pricing for materials like copper is also rising since the conflict.
Wars have always affected the cost of goods and materials, but perhaps not to the extent they are today. Thomson cited specifically the Russia-Ukraine war, in which swings in commodities pricing have been felt by countries across the globe, including fertilizer prices doubling and wheat hitting an all-time high, Thomson said. And when the Houthis started attacking ships in the Red Sea in 2023, cargo ships had to be rerouted, adding cost (in large part because of longer routes and higher insurance requirements) to those goods.
The geology for where natural resources can be found was once the key determining factor in access and cost of raw materials — but that’s no longer the case, Thomson said.
“Geology has been demoted by geography,” he continued.
One example: Indonesia controls about 20% of the world's nickel supply, but in 2013, the country produced only about 2%. Indonesia at that time had been sending raw nickel ore to China for about $63 a ton, then re-importing that material as stainless steel for $2,200 a ton.
“That all changed in 2014, when they banned the export of unprocessed nickel ore,” Thomson said. “The value of the nickel is not a function of geology. It is a function of who and where the commodity is used.”
Because China today refines and processes so many of the world’s critical materials, that’s given the country significant concentrated economic power and influence over access and cost to those goods. And because China has banned exports of certain materials, such as antimony, that’s dramatically escalated pricing for those items across the world. Antimony (which is used in batteries, flame retardants and ammunition) went from $1,400 per ton in July 2024 to $38,000 per ton in September — a 2,600% increase in just two months.
Thomson cited a 2019 paper by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman — professors at George Washington University and Georgetown University, respectively — the thesis of which was that globalization has not produced a “flat, frictionless world,” but instead has produced asymmetrical global networks of finance, information and trade.
“What you see are hubs that are controlled by individual jurisdictions,” he said. “So while globalization appears to flatten the surface and make free trade quite free, in fact, it has funneled the economy through these hubs.”
The Charlotte Economics Club holds monthly luncheons and other events on economic policy, business trends, regional growth issues and global economic themes. The Ledger is the club’s media partner.
Ashley Fahey is managing editor of The Charlotte Ledger: [email protected]